The Economists predicts Disaster for Iraq
According to the Economist, sectarian dvision has been made clear by the Iraqi elections:
"...the result means that nearly all Iraqis voted according to ethnic and sectarian divisions, means that the Shias will be almost as dominant in this government as in the last, when the Sunnis boycotted the vote. Although for now all sides are clamouring for a government of national unity, the UIA's strong showing means it can probably exclude any group it pleases, thus burying American and British hopes that the secular parties would break up the UIA and cast hardline Shia doctrine, viewed as a polarising force, out of power."
A unity government is not likely because the power that comes with holding a government ministry is simply too great to turn over to opponents. The Shiites, who now have the upperhand, simply have no incentive to turn over power to the Sunnis especially when there is no way to trust the Sunnis with power once they have it. Likewise, the Sunni cannot hope that the Shiite will use power magnaminously and refrain from butchering the Sunnis in the same way that the Sunnis, under Saddam, butchered the Shiites.
In other words, the results mirror the grim prediction that many have made -- violence and uncertainty in Iraq have led people to side with their sectarian community. The elections, in other words, will reinforce the slide into civil war.